Brighton (revisited): the wisdom of crowds?

Posted by on Mar 17, 2007 in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

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Pic c/o BBC News

One further thing to do with next week in Brighton: John Kearon’s doing a bit of a social experiment with his Brainjuicer gang.

They’re running a predictive market concept test on which of the many high quality papers will have the most and the least influence on delegates. Something I have often pondered – alone – before conferences.

Go here to play your part. It only takes a few minutes and John and co will let you know your results.

FYI (if you’ve not being paying attention) Brainjuicer have taken the learning from the IEM‘s (Iowa Electronic Markets), a pioneering online facility originally at the University of Iowa in order to study investor behaviour. It turns out that crowds are often smarter than the smartest individual (that’s why bookies tend to be richer than their punters). In particular, trading markets run on presidential elections have been more accurate in their predictions than opinion polls (on 3 out of 4 days in which a poll was published). More here or indeed here.

The current Brainjuicer product adapts some of the learning from these full markets: they ask you what you think other people might do/think (rather than to examine your own behaviour/preferences etc). Fewer questions, just as (if not more precise), much quicker etc etc

Go on, John’s presenting this data later in the week….

3 Comments

  1. University Update
    March 18, 2007

    Brighton (revisited): the wisdom of crowds?

  2. Lee McEwan
    March 18, 2007

    Looks like it was very popular. John’s closed it. I look forward to seeing the results (and your paper) in Brighton next week.

  3. Mark Earls
    March 18, 2007

    Give me a shout when you’re down there and we’ll have a cuppa